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Fools Follow Ides of March
Sutanu Guru wonders why ‘financial’ years start in April and end in March – not counting for the Ides of March followed by April Fool’s Day...
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 Memories have a habit of fading into indulgent nostalgia. And in this age of villains and betrayals, charismatic heroes are so hard to find that nostalgia becomes a handy substitute for a reality check. Detroit feels nostalgic about Lee Iacocca. Microsoft feels nostalgic about Bill Gates as a nerd. Republicans feel nostalgic about Ronald Reagan. Congress workers feel nostalgic about the glory days of the dynasty in India. GE feels nostalgic about Jack Welch. Wall Street feels nostalgic about unbridled greed. And this April, many Americans feel nostalgic about John F. Kennedy (with due apologies to Barack Obama)
And yet, when it comes to fool proof strategies for April, John F. Kennedy will arguably go down as one of the worst examples in history. His Camelot administration was responsible for the notorious Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in April, 1961 which ended in both military and propaganda disaster. Fidel Castro ruled Cuba for more than one generation after Kennedy was assassinated and Americans are still trying to count the costs of that April strategy of combating communism with a steel fist. The Congress President Sonia Gandhi too will always remember April as a month she should rather shrug away in embarrassment. For, it was in April, 1999 that her trusted strategic advisors prompted Sonia to stand in front of Rashtrapati Bhavan and show a sign of victory. That ‘strategic’ victory turned out to be chimera. It was an alliance led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee that swept the marketing sweepstakes and won decisive market share in the 1999 General Elections. Of course, unlike Americans with Cuba, Sonia Gandhi didn’t have to wait for ages for redemption and recovery.
In the world of business and marketing, such ‘foolish’ foolproof strategies probably do not change the course of history. But then, they at least end up making history involved in such foolproof strategies. Just think about it for one moment. Have you seen a single new ad on TV, print, outdoor or web of Pepsi. Sure, there was that one about ‘Youngistan’. But honestly, it is already more than half of April, 2009 and have you seen any new Pepsi slogan? Don’t you wonder if it is a deliberate strategy of the soft drink giant? And what could that foolproof strategy be when Coke is going to town with high decibel pitches?
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 It is not just about April Fool’s Day. The month has been a source of both mystery and strategy for ages. You see, back in history when people led simpler lives, April was a month of power, rejuvenation, hope and new beginnings. The harvests were in the market and families had the money to splurge (or starve if the crops failed). But even then, ‘producers’ had to take strategic decisions. The difference between then and now is – the variables were limited and strategic decision making was not so complex then. After all, all a farmer had to decide was which crop to sow and leave the rest to whichever God he believed in. In this day and age of modern corporations, annual budgets and strategic plans, April continues to be a month of new beginnings and new plans. And more often than not, God is less a factor than power point presentations and number crunching and targets. Wonder why ‘financial’ years start in April and end in March – not counting for the Ides of March followed by April Fool’s Day!
Modern day entrepreneurs like Anil Ambani too sometimes have no choice but to leave some things to God. But then, the man surely has do more than pleasing God and number crunching. Of all major entrepreneurs in the country, the younger sibling’s April, 2009 strategy will be critical for his own survival as a maker of magic. ADAG has invested billions in numerous new and old ventures. There was that promise of synergy that would boost cash flows like how. But cash flows have dried up and many of Anil Ambani’s infrastructural dreams are in danger of becoming nightmares. How will he ensure that 2010 will not be one related to the Ides of March for his group? India Inc. will be closely following his April strategy.
Lalit Modi is another gambler who has taken April as a month of challenges and opportunities. Recently, his so called brainchild and money spinner, Indian Premier League (IPL) is virtually struck by the Ides of March virus when the powers that be decreed that India may not be a safe place to host the IPL extravaganza. Shahrukh Khan suddenly saw his dreams of a rampaging Kolkata Knight Riders transforming from a blank cheque to an albatross. There were many others like Vijay Mallya, Preity Zinta and Shilpa Shetty who risked losing fame and fortune. But Lalit Modi has taken a bold April gamble and taken the IPL to South Africa. Nobody is still willing to gamble on the future of his gamble!
But the, the mother of all April, 2009 strategies will that of that branch of the Bajaj family that handles Bajaj Auto. Once the undisputed market leader and icon of the Indian automobile industry, Bajaj Auto is losing market share and mindspace so precipitously that one fears where ‘Hamara Bajaj’ will be headed in April, 2010. A turnaround will be truly remarkable. But then, betting on a Bajaj turnaround will be a huge gamble.
These are just a few isolated examples. Do read the entire package for the really interesting stuff on the real April Foolproof strategies.
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Sutanu Guru
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